Is the green transition itself a source of inflationary pressure or part of the solution? How can a just transition be achieved? What are the likely prospects for inflation given structural changes in emerging markets and demographic trends? These questions will be at the core of the FMM Conference 2023 under the title “Inflation, Distributional Conflict and Just Transition”.
Keynes' General Theory was a massive step forward relative to classical economics, but it was also a step backward in its denial of the conflictual nature of capitalism. There is need to understand Keynes' technical contributions regarding the workings of monetary economies, but also need to understand the flaws within his thinking and the consequences thereof. Keynes made a fundamental contribution elucidating the mechanism of effective demand, and he also has claim to be the preeminent monetary theorist. However, owing to his denial of conflict, he had a flawed view of capitalism which is why establishment Keynesianism struggles to explain contemporary stagnation. That flawed view also undermines the case for Social Democracy. Contrary to conventional wisdom, his view of capitalism is supportive of Neoliberalism and Keynes can be viewed as a compassionate (Third Way) Neoliberal.
We explore the relationship between inequality, unemployment, and inflation by considering the evidence that low-wage workers are more exposed to business cycle fluctuations. The analysis is undertaken in an extended version of the stock-and-flow consistent agent-based model by Rolim et al. (2023), in which inflation and inequality result from the social conflict over income distribution. The inflation-unemployment-inequality nexus leads to the inequality-augmented Phillips curve relating higher levels of unemployment to lower inflation rates and more inequality. We then perform two sets of experiments to investigate the implications of this nexus further. The first experiment shows that the decrease in low-wage workers' bargaining power could explain the flattening of the Phillips curve and the increase in income and wage inequalities. The second experiment contrasts different monetary policy rules and compares the implications for inequality dynamics. In line with the inequality-augmented Phillips curve, the rules have important implications for wage and income inequalities: a monetary policy rule that prioritizes low inflation rates is associated with higher unemployment and higher inequality levels.
We analyse the decline of household saving rates in the bottom half of the income distribution in Germany since the 2000s, which allowed for only moderately increasing consumption inequality, despite sharply rising income inequality. We combine survey data on household consumption with our own representative survey on the visibility and status relevance of various spending categories to test for upwards directed social status comparisons as an explanation of these trends. We find that non-rich households shift their income allocations towards more visible and status relevant areas of consumption when incomes at the top rise relative to their own. Renter households offset higher status consumption by reducing expenditures on other consumption components. In contrast, homeowners maintain higher status-oriented expenditures, particularly regarding housing, by considerably reducing their saving rates.
This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy’s supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy.
FMM Fellows are distinguished scholars that contribute to the development of the Forum, act as its ambassadors in academics and policy circles and give advice to the coordination group.
